Welcome to Cairns Listed.
I bought my first place here not long ago. The hardest part wasn't the finance or the building inspection. It was the volume.
Hundreds of listings. Refreshed constantly. No way to tell which ones were worth an afternoon and which were noise — and no way to tell whether a place that looked good to me would look good to someone buying for completely different reasons.
So I started keeping a list. Six a fortnight, sorted by the kind of buyer they'd suit, because what makes a good investment is not what makes a good first home.
That list is this newsletter. Six listings, one number worth understanding, no filler.
This fortnight, Cairns did something almost no other market in the country managed.
Brisbane recorded its fifth consecutive monthly price fall. Nationally, prices have been sliding since March. Cairns posted growth for the month, the quarter and the year, which realestate.com.au's latest Home Price Report calls an increasingly rare feat.
Their senior economist Eleanor Creagh put it down to tight listings and strong demand shielding the region from the interest rate pressure now hitting the southern capitals. She also warned Cairns isn't immune, particularly if the Reserve Bank moves again before Christmas.
Here's the number underneath all of it.
Why 101 matters more than the median price
Everyone quotes the median. The median tells you what already happened. Approvals tell you what's ahead…
After ten straight months on the decline, Cairns building approvals finally ticked up in June. That's good news, but does it really move the needle. Queensland is running 24.7% ahead of last year. The nation is 14.1% ahead. Cairns is 21.2% behind, and the September Cairns Economic Monitor is blunt about it: approvals remain far too low to address what it calls a chronic accommodation shortage.
After ten straight months on the decline, Cairns building approvals finally ticked up in June. That's good news, but does it really move the needle?
There's a fair objection to the 21.2% figure. Adjust for a one-off block of 468 units approved in Woree in July last year and the picture softens: the monthly figure lifts to 109 and the annual fall shrinks to 2.3%. That sounds better until you put it beside the rest of the state. Queensland is running 24.7% ahead of last year. The nation is 14.1% ahead. Flat is not catching up, and the September Cairns Economic Monitor is blunt about it: approvals remain far too low to address what it calls a chronic accommodation shortage.
Now put that beside the rental market. Vacancy sat at 0.7% in July, the sixth straight month under 1%, and part of a run of sixty-seven consecutive months between 0.5% and 1.2%.
That's not a tight market. That's a five and a half year shortage.
Rents have followed. A two bedroom unit now runs $538 a week, up 14% on the year. A three bedroom house is $664, up 6%. More people arriving, the same amount being built, nowhere for anyone to live.
The Reserve Bank held at 4.35% on 11 August, and the minutes show the discussion was between holding and hiking. Cuts weren't on the table. Markets are now fully pricing another 25 basis points by early next year, taking the cash rate to 4.6%. The next decision is 29 September. In most of the country that pressure is what's cooling prices. In Cairns it hasn't, because the problem isn't demand. It's supply, and interest rates don't build houses.
What eventually changes this is Mount Peter, the 18,500 home development area south of the city. Cairns Regional Council doesn't expect the first homes until around mid 2028. Everything before then doesn’t exactly point to any change.
One honest note. Two of the six listings below have had their price guides revised down. Writing in the same September Monitor, Nadine Edwards of LJ Hooker Cairns Edge Hill points out there are more advertised listings in Cairns than at any time since before 2021, and that while the figures haven't shown a dip yet, contracts settling over coming months may tell a different story. This is worth looking into.
The number to act on
Units are pulling away from houses. The Economic Monitor has unit prices up 22.5% on the year, accelerating and at their fastest pace in eighteen months, while house growth has slowed to 12%. The Home Price Report measures it smaller, 11.43% against 9.63%, but points the same way. Median unit $499,000, median house $796,000. If you assumed houses were where Cairns growth lives, the last twelve months disagreed.
24/91 Hoare Street, Manunda
$395,000 or near offer considered
2 bed · 1 bath |
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Here's the thing about Cairns units right now. According to Real Estate Investar, they're returning 6.24% against 4.78% for houses, and there are 11.69% fewer of them on the market than this time last year, while house stock went the other way, up 4.61%. The Cairns Economic Monitor has unit prices growing 22.5% over the year against 11.8% for houses. Fewer units for sale, better returns, faster growth.
This one is a 110m² villa in the Regency Gardens complex, freshly painted and vacant, with two pools in the grounds. PropTrack estimates it would rent for $515 a week, which on $395,000 is a gross yield of 6.8%. That's above the Cairns unit average. The agent discloses body corporate levies of $930.14 a quarter and council rates of $1,633.45 a half, so call it $6,990 a year, which brings the return back to around 5%.
Worth comparing that to the Edge Hill unit further down this edition, where the body corporate takes 29% of the rent. Here it's 14%. Same city, same fortnight, both under $400,000, and that one number is most of the difference between them.If you already own and you're looking for the second one, start here.
If you're buying for cash flow rather than growth, this is where the numbers are pointing this fortnight.
4/126-128 Greenslopes Street, Edge Hill
Offers over $350,000
2 bed · 1 bath |
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Those looking for an investment may not be interested in the body corporate at $5,201 a year, which takes 29% of the current $350 a week rent. But if you're after a first home in a location that's hard to beat, the numbers are worth a look.
It's tenanted, so the photos you'll see are someone's actual living room, and it is dated. But the bones are good and an updated interior could make a real difference. Paint, curtains and pulling off those timber pelmets would make more of a difference than you might think.
If you've been priced out of Edge Hill houses, start here.
8B Beaumont Terrace, Mount Sheridan
$359,000
682m² |
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An elevated block at Mount Sheridan with ocean and 180-degree mountain views, at a fixed price rather than an offers-over guide.
Read the listing carefully though. The agent puts the usable, buildable area at around 469m². That's honest of them, and it changes the maths on what you're actually buying.
A project with a long completion date, but worth the wait for a home you can make all the decisions on.
209 Mcleod Street, Cairns North
$995,000
3 bed · 2 bath |
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An old Queenslander on a corner block in Cairns North 548m² block, just a short walk from the Esplanade.
Looking for a project? This is one worth looking into. You could have a prime piece of land into something special, although, the $995,000 price tag doesn’t make it an entry level opportunity.
If you’re prepared to work for your dream home, this is the one for you.
16 Mazlin Street, Edge Hill
"Now buyers in the $900,000's considered"
3 bed · 2 bath |
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Tucked away in Edge Hill, this property is "Now considering" buyers in the $900,000’s. In a market where almost everything is still climbing, that's worth more of your attention than another listing at full ask.
If you've been outbid and felt like giving up this year, this is worth a look.
17 Master Circuit, Trinity Beach
Mid $900,000's
4 bed · 2 bath |
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Four bedrooms, multiple living zones and a pool, in a sought after area of Trinity Beach. This is the one you forward to your friends and family.
With number 5 on the same street, another 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home, selling for $1 million earlier this year, the tone has been set. This one's guiding mid $900,000s.
Those looking for a larger piece of land may not be interested in the 400m² block. But if you're after an easy to maintain lifestyle in a hard to beat location, this is the one.
Looking for beachside living with a garden size that could be considered 'easy to maintain?' It could be worth attending the open home this weekend.
That's edition one.
Six listings, six different agencies, and some data to take in.
If you've got a view on what should be in here, a suburb you want covered, a listing I've missed, a number you want explained or even just a reply, simply hit reply to this email.
See you in a fortnight.
— Cairns Listed
Cairns Listed is general information and opinion, not financial or property advice. Figures are sourced from third parties and current at the time of writing. Do your own research and speak to a licensed professional before making a decision.
